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In reply to the discussion: Consumer prices rise 2.7% annually in July, less than expected amid tariff worries [View all]Wiz Imp
(6,648 posts)59. This is all I need to know about how seriously to take that website
[All excerpts from Wikipedia]
Economist and former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy Paul Craig Roberts has cited John Williams' estimates in a review of unemployment rates in 2013. Williams' work has also been cited by author Wayne Allyn Root. Williams has been featured on Fox Business Network and his work has been cited by CNBC
That's this Paul Craig Roberts:
In 2019, Roberts wrote in support of the views of Holocaust denier David Irving, asserting that "Irving, without any doubt the best historian of the European part of World War II, learned at his great expense that challenging myths does not go unpunished... I will avoid the story of how this came to be, but, yes, you guessed it, it was the Zionists".
And this Wayne Allyn Root:
Root was a leading proponent of the conspiracy theory that President Barack Obama was not born in the United States. Root falsely claimed that Obama was not a student at Columbia University. He later stated in a 2012 interview with Sean Hannity that he believed Obama was a "foreign exchange student" there. He has repeatedly described Obama as a "Marxist, anti-American, anti-Israel, globalist, middle class-hating, Muslim sympathizer". In 2017, he claimed that Obama was gay, called him "Bathhouse Barry" and said that he had info from Obama's "friends in Chicago" about his "sordid past". In 2014, he described Obama as a "Manchurian candidate", possibly hired by the Bilderberg Group to destroy the United States and "kill all of us"
.
University of Maryland Professor Katharine Abraham, who previously headed the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency responsible for publishing official unemployment and inflation data, says of Williams' claims about data manipulation that "[t]he culture of the Bureau of Labor Statistics is so strong that it's not going to happen." Steve Landefeld, former director of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Commerce Department agency that prepares quarterly GDP reports, said in response to an article about Williams, "the bureau rigorously follows guidelines designed to ensure its work remains totally transparent and absolutely unbiased." In the same article, UC San Diego economist Valerie Ramey, a member of the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee, defended the methodological changes, claiming they were only made "after academic economists did decades of research and said they should be done."
Senior Fellow of the Niskanen Center Ed Dolan has found these alternatives to be "implausibly high" in spite of potential errors in the official data, especially when cross checked with data on nominal interest rates and physical output. Shadowstats measure of inflation has also been unfavorably compared with alternative private measures such as the Billions Prices Project which tracks millions of online retail prices from around the world in real time. In addition, despite claims of much higher inflation than official reports suggest, and even potential hyperinflation in the future, Shadowstats has not changed its $175 per year subscription fee since at least 2006, leading some to humor its own claims.
Responding to prior criticisms made by economist James Hamilton, John Williams explained in a private phone call that Shadowstats does not actually recalculate BLS data, rather, the Shadowstats CPI merely adds a constant to the officially reported numbers.
Senior Fellow of the Niskanen Center Ed Dolan has found these alternatives to be "implausibly high" in spite of potential errors in the official data, especially when cross checked with data on nominal interest rates and physical output. Shadowstats measure of inflation has also been unfavorably compared with alternative private measures such as the Billions Prices Project which tracks millions of online retail prices from around the world in real time. In addition, despite claims of much higher inflation than official reports suggest, and even potential hyperinflation in the future, Shadowstats has not changed its $175 per year subscription fee since at least 2006, leading some to humor its own claims.
Responding to prior criticisms made by economist James Hamilton, John Williams explained in a private phone call that Shadowstats does not actually recalculate BLS data, rather, the Shadowstats CPI merely adds a constant to the officially reported numbers.
Im not going back and recalculating the CPI. All Im doing is going back to the governments estimates of what the effect would be and using that as an add factor to the reported statistics.
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Consumer prices rise 2.7% annually in July, less than expected amid tariff worries [View all]
BumRushDaShow
Aug 12
OP
Right. Three month trend except for one outlier month. And the incrementation is growing, not receding. NT
Mike 03
Aug 12
#6
They must not be measuring groceries. Looks like BLS has already been Trumpified.
SunSeeker
Aug 12
#7
I guess the Fed will cut rates next month, but I do believe we'll hear some really
Mike 03
Aug 12
#9
more specifically, it's claiming the rate at which grocery prices are rising is down
cadoman
Aug 12
#55
Nope. "rise 2.7 pc" is not steady. If they rose 0 pcent + or - a tad, that would be steady. . . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Aug 12
#75
There is a difference between "steady" and the Reserves "dual mandate"
Bernardo de La Paz
Aug 12
#86
When the average American sees the words "less than expected," they think prices aren't rising much.
SunSeeker
Aug 12
#80
Well, then, the average American should acquire the habit of reading what is actually printed
Bernardo de La Paz
Aug 12
#85
CNBC has been pretty good with their headlines and usually doesn't spin them
BumRushDaShow
Aug 12
#54
No. BLS still run by professionals. I won't trust BLS after tRump gets his toadie installed, but we're not there yet. nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Aug 12
#33
No. Doubt you can present credible links as evidence. Reflexive cynicism clouds judgement. . . . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Aug 12
#39
That's not evidence. Economists as a profession made big changes to GDP in 80s and 90s.
Bernardo de La Paz
Aug 12
#44
If the numbers are supposedly so bad, why didn't Clinton, Obama and Biden fix the system? Bc they are not so bad. . . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Aug 12
#63
If you let AI do your thinking for you, no wonder you endorse fringe theories. . . . . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Aug 12
#64
Trump and bush caused tens of millions to leave the labor market after abandoning looking for a job
CNYHarris
Aug 12
#62
The numbers are garbage pure and simple. You do yourself no good by trying to defend
Wiz Imp
Aug 12
#67
Let's not be so hasty. The guy has definitive proof on the location of Atlantis.
mahatmakanejeeves
Aug 12
#61
He's also a grifter - I remember once tracking down one of his claims, I think on the "real" unemployment rate
progree
Aug 12
#65
They have an open book on how they compute the numbers and economists routinely double-check them
Bernardo de La Paz
Aug 12
#70
The entire economy WAS revolving around US in trade. After tariff war, countries like Canada are looking elsewhere. . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Aug 12
#32
No it was not. US trade dwarfs other countries. Plus trade includes services, not just manufacturing. . . . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Aug 12
#37
Land does not trade, people do. Lots of area in small countries. Look at the big economies. Russia is declining.
Bernardo de La Paz
Aug 12
#52
Yeah. All the small countries. That does not prove your point. . . . . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Aug 12
#50
Fed focuses on the core. It's up 3.1 pc yr on yr. That should be the headline. 3.1 percent is not "inflation is tamed".n
Bernardo de La Paz
Aug 12
#31
That's why BLS does massive survey & real calculations. A single item is not significant even if it rose 100 pct. . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Aug 12
#76