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progree

(12,240 posts)
65. He's also a grifter - I remember once tracking down one of his claims, I think on the "real" unemployment rate
Tue Aug 12, 2025, 11:12 AM
Aug 12

being 20-something percent. I spent more than an hour on his website following links and doing searches, but never could get beyond assertions - unless I paid $80 for full access that included a link to something that purported to provide the evidence.

This was several years ago. $80 wasn't and isn't a lot of money for me, but I know when my leg is being pulled.

It would make as much sense as putting money into a Bitcoin ATM to pay taxes and fees on winning a grand prize.

Paul Solman at PBS several years ago used to calculate a "U-7" unemployment rate which counted everyone who said they wanted a job and had no job currently (taken from responses to the BLS Household Survey that produces the official and other unemployment levels), even if they had not looked for a job for decades, plus part-timers who said they wanted a full-time job, and it was way under what ShadowStats was "reporting" at the time. I used to (years ago) duplicate his calculations when I was doing detailed job figures postings at the site in my sigline -- https://www.democraticunderground.com/111622439

BTW:
U-3, the official headline unemployment rate, counts only jobless people who have looked for work sometime in the last 4 weeks. In BLS parlance, these are people who are "actively seeking work". (part-time employees are considered employed in this measure, even if only one hour a week).

U-6, the most expansive version of unemployment rate that the BLS produces, counts people who have looked for work sometime in the last 12 months. It also counts part-time employees who say they want full-time work as unemployed (the U-3 counts them as employed).

Recommendations

1 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Let the RW crowing begin. 🙄 underpants Aug 12 #1
Inflation is STILL rising and not falling BumRushDaShow Aug 12 #3
Right. Three month trend except for one outlier month. And the incrementation is growing, not receding. NT Mike 03 Aug 12 #6
The last CNBC update included the core at 3.1% vs expected 3% BumRushDaShow Aug 12 #8
I wouldn't say this is good. Mike 03 Aug 12 #5
I suspect spending has dropped due to layoffs bucolic_frolic Aug 12 #2
The importers/wholesalers and some retailers are still eating it BumRushDaShow Aug 12 #11
This is not a good report Johnny2X2X Aug 12 #4
They must not be measuring groceries. Looks like BLS has already been Trumpified. SunSeeker Aug 12 #7
Yep.................... Lovie777 Aug 12 #13
Yup. Went shopping yesterday. First time in 2 weeks. Biophilic Aug 12 #16
Exactly. Every time I buy groceries, I pay more...a lot more. SunSeeker Aug 12 #22
I guess the Fed will cut rates next month, but I do believe we'll hear some really Mike 03 Aug 12 #9
I believe there will be a new UE report (for August) BumRushDaShow Aug 12 #12
Remaining FOMC meetings in 2025: 9/17, 10/29, 12/10 progree Aug 12 #18
They will have a load to comb through before 9/17! BumRushDaShow Aug 12 #27
Unfortunately this has no credibility so I can't believe it's accurate Bluestocking Aug 12 #10
Which way is it off? gab13by13 Aug 12 #14
For one thing, it claims grocery prices are down. Total and utter bullshit. SunSeeker Aug 12 #23
more specifically, it's claiming the rate at which grocery prices are rising is down cadoman Aug 12 #55
Yes, of course. But the headline implies prices stayed steady. nt SunSeeker Aug 12 #72
Nope. "rise 2.7 pc" is not steady. If they rose 0 pcent + or - a tad, that would be steady. . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Aug 12 #75
Nope. US Federal Reserve considers that just a tick above steady cadoman Aug 12 #78
There is a difference between "steady" and the Reserves "dual mandate" Bernardo de La Paz Aug 12 #86
When the average American sees the words "less than expected," they think prices aren't rising much. SunSeeker Aug 12 #80
in all fairness I did have to look it up cadoman Aug 12 #84
Well, then, the average American should acquire the habit of reading what is actually printed Bernardo de La Paz Aug 12 #85
Sadly, we tried what you're suggesting. It didn't work. nt SunSeeker Aug 12 #87
Graphs - not a bad CPI but a hot Core CPI . Very different graphs. progree Aug 12 #15
Good morning! BumRushDaShow Aug 12 #17
The food at home (groceries) index fell 0.1 percent?! What bullshit! SunSeeker Aug 12 #21
Did you notice that food prices were flat? sinkingfeeling Aug 12 #19
Not when I bought groceries this week! Those inflation numbers are off. SunSeeker Aug 12 #25
The report is for the previous month BumRushDaShow Aug 12 #29
I wish you had gone with a different source, that CNBC headline is misleading. SunSeeker Aug 12 #42
CNBC has been pretty good with their headlines and usually doesn't spin them BumRushDaShow Aug 12 #54
Tariffs have kicked in sporadically but definitely on some food products JT45242 Aug 12 #20
I see very high OJ and beef, but oddly enough cheap tomatoes and berries? cadoman Aug 12 #77
I hate the smell of Sharpie in the morning. twodogsbarking Aug 12 #24
Unreliable stats. Plus the tariffs haven't really kicked in yet Ritabert Aug 12 #26
Better data here: CNYHarris Aug 12 #28
No. BLS still run by professionals. I won't trust BLS after tRump gets his toadie installed, but we're not there yet. nt Bernardo de La Paz Aug 12 #33
They were cooking the books long before Trump CNYHarris Aug 12 #36
No. Doubt you can present credible links as evidence. Reflexive cynicism clouds judgement. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Aug 12 #39
Evidence CNYHarris Aug 12 #40
That's not evidence. Economists as a profession made big changes to GDP in 80s and 90s. Bernardo de La Paz Aug 12 #44
Big changes caused this CNYHarris Aug 12 #46
More big changes are soon to arrive CNYHarris Aug 12 #47
You make some really imaginative assertions Torchlight Aug 12 #74
Not particularly credible and it doesn't support your Reagan claim Bernardo de La Paz Aug 12 #48
Post removed Post removed Aug 12 #56
If the numbers are supposedly so bad, why didn't Clinton, Obama and Biden fix the system? Bc they are not so bad. . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Aug 12 #63
If you let AI do your thinking for you, no wonder you endorse fringe theories. . . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Aug 12 #64
This is all I need to know about how seriously to take that website Wiz Imp Aug 12 #59
OMG. That data is absolute garbage. The guy is a lunatic. Wiz Imp Aug 12 #51
It shows similar to the Trump 2010s CNYHarris Aug 12 #58
It's absolute garbage. Pure and simple. Not to be taken seriously. Wiz Imp Aug 12 #60
Trump and bush caused tens of millions to leave the labor market after abandoning looking for a job CNYHarris Aug 12 #62
The forgotten CNYHarris Aug 12 #66
The numbers are garbage pure and simple. You do yourself no good by trying to defend Wiz Imp Aug 12 #67
Let's not be so hasty. The guy has definitive proof on the location of Atlantis. mahatmakanejeeves Aug 12 #61
He's also a grifter - I remember once tracking down one of his claims, I think on the "real" unemployment rate progree Aug 12 #65
So I guess Obama "cooked the books" as well. Wiz Imp Aug 12 #53
See here CNYHarris Aug 12 #57
You have no idea what you're talking about. You're just flat out wrong. Wiz Imp Aug 12 #43
BLS is now run by intimidated professionals who know what's expected. thought crime Aug 12 #68
They have an open book on how they compute the numbers and economists routinely double-check them Bernardo de La Paz Aug 12 #70
This message was self-deleted by its author onenote Aug 12 #83
It is called fake it until you make it CNYHarris Aug 12 #30
The entire economy WAS revolving around US in trade. After tariff war, countries like Canada are looking elsewhere. . nt Bernardo de La Paz Aug 12 #32
It was revolving around China and Europe CNYHarris Aug 12 #35
No it was not. US trade dwarfs other countries. Plus trade includes services, not just manufacturing. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Aug 12 #37
total BS CNYHarris Aug 12 #41
Wow. That time laps graphic is brutal. nt SunSeeker Aug 12 #45
China and the EU27 beat the US in total exports CNYHarris Aug 12 #49
Land does not trade, people do. Lots of area in small countries. Look at the big economies. Russia is declining. Bernardo de La Paz Aug 12 #52
Yeah. All the small countries. That does not prove your point. . . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Aug 12 #50
Would you watch NFL games if opponents of Philly owned the refs CNYHarris Aug 12 #34
Fed focuses on the core. It's up 3.1 pc yr on yr. That should be the headline. 3.1 percent is not "inflation is tamed".n Bernardo de La Paz Aug 12 #31
Media would be skewering Biden if this report happened under him Johnny2X2X Aug 12 #38
I Expect These Numbers Will Be Revised Upwards In Future Months DallasNE Aug 12 #69
The main CPI is only revised annually Wiz Imp Aug 12 #71
That's why BLS does massive survey & real calculations. A single item is not significant even if it rose 100 pct. . nt Bernardo de La Paz Aug 12 #76
Yesterday I paid $28 for 5 lbs of ground beef at Costco kimbutgar Aug 12 #73
I expect the August report (which comes out September 11) will be very interesting progree Aug 12 #81
When was the last time you bought ground beef? onenote Aug 12 #82
Sure. Scrivener7 Aug 12 #79
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