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June jobs report expected to show hiring slowed while unemployment rate ticked higher

Josh Schafer • Reporter
Wed, July 2, 2025 at 3:21 PM EDT • 3 min read

The June jobs report is expected to show hiring slowed while the unemployment rate moved higher. The data's release will come as investors closely watch for any further signs of slowing in the US labor market amid growing debate over when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics data is slated for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 110,000 in June and the unemployment rate to have moved up to 4.3%, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg. ...In May, the US economy added 139,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held flat at 4.2%.

Here are the numbers Wall Street is expecting Thursday, according to data from Bloomberg:

• Nonfarm payrolls: +110,000 vs. +139,000 in May
• Unemployment rate: 4.3% vs. 4.2%
• Average hourly earnings, month over month: +0.3% vs. +0.4%
• Average hourly earnings, year over year: +3.8% vs. +3.9%
• Average weekly hours worked: 34.3 vs. 34.3

"We think labor demand is slowing, but so far the slowdown is modest," Morgan Stanley chief US economist Michael Gapen wrote in a note to clients.

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